Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 22 2023 - 12Z Sat Jun 24 2023

...Heat wave to persist from eastern/southern New Mexico across much of
Texas...

...Wet weather across much of the eastern U.S. and the Plains...

...Critical Risk of Fires across much of New Mexico...

The upper-level pattern will feature coastal lows in the West and East
with a ridge over the central CONUS. Shortwave energy spinning through the
upper ridge over the Great Plains will initiate thunderstorm activity
during peak heating this afternoon/evening. There's a Slight Risk of some
thunderstorms turning severe over parts of northeastern New Mexico, the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandle eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Large
hail, in excess of 2 inches in diameter, severe wind gusts and a tornado
or two are all possible. There's also a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding across much of South Dakota, Nebraska, eastern
Colorado, and western Kansas where isolated instances of 1-2 inches of
storm total rainfall are possible. The relatively saturated soils will
make for surfaces favorable to runoff. The Gulf of Mexico spigot will
continue streaming moisture northward around a stationary upper low, which
will continue to be situated over the eastern half of the country for the
next few days. Areas of 1-2 inches of rain over saturated soils could lead
to runoff concerns, which is why a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect across much of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic today.

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will continue across the Great Plains
on Friday with there being a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from
eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota down to western Texas. A
stationary front draped across the Southern Plains and shortwave energy
aloft will act as a focus for thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon/evening.
Favorable moisture and instability will also support very large hail and
the genesis of a tornado or two. Heavy rainfall across southern Montana
and the Dakotas could produce 1-3 inches in some places by Saturday
morning. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is
in effect as a result. Moderate to heavy rain will continue to impact the
East Coast on Friday with the axis of heaviest rainfall occurring over the
Florida Panhandle and eastern Pennsylvania where thunderstorms capable of
producing 1-2 inches of rain could lead to flash flooding.

A dangerous heat wave in much of southern/central Texas and southeastern
New Mexico is expected to continue through the weekend beneath an area of
high pressure. Daytime temperatures in the 100s and 110s and heat index
values in excess of that, followed by nighttime temps in the 70s and 80s,
will be relentless on those who are exposed outside for too long. Many
places will continue to tie or break daily high and low temperature
records. Dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s will add a humidity
factor to the heat that will make outdoor conditions feel oppressive. Dry,
hot and windy conditions will favor a critical risk of fire weather across
much of New Mexico on Friday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php