Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 22 2023 - 12Z Sat Jun 24 2023

...Heat wave to persist from eastern/southern New Mexico across
much of Texas...

...Wet weather across much of the eastern U.S. and the Plains...

...Critical Risk of Fires across much of New Mexico...

The upper-level pattern will feature coastal lows in the West and
East with a ridge over the central CONUS. Shortwave energy
spinning through the upper ridge over the Great Plains will
initiate thunderstorm activity during peak heating this
afternoon/evening. There's a Slight Risk of some thunderstorms
turning severe over parts of northeastern New Mexico, the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandle eastern Colorado and southeastern
Wyoming. Large hail, in excess of 2 inches in diameter, severe
wind gusts and a tornado or two are all possible. There's also a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding across
much of South Dakota, Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and western
Kansas where isolated instances of 1-2 inches of storm total
rainfall are possible. The relatively saturated soils will make
for surfaces favorable to runoff. The Gulf of Mexico spigot will
continue streaming moisture northward around a stationary upper
low, which will continue to be situated over the eastern half of
the country for the next few days. Areas of 1-2 inches of rain
over saturated soils could lead to runoff concerns, which is why a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in
effect across much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic today.

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will continue across the Great
Plains on Friday with there being a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms from eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota
down to western Texas. A stationary front draped across the
Southern Plains and shortwave energy aloft will act as a focus for
thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon/evening. Favorable moisture
and instability will also support very large hail and the genesis
of a tornado or two. Heavy rainfall across southern Montana and
the Dakotas could produce 1-3 inches in some places by Saturday
morning. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding is in effect as a result. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue to impact the East Coast on Friday with the axis of
heaviest rainfall occurring over the Florida Panhandle and eastern
Pennsylvania where thunderstorms capable of producing 1-2 inches
of rain could lead to flash flooding.

A dangerous heat wave in much of southern/central Texas and
southeastern New Mexico is expected to continue through the
weekend beneath an area of high pressure. Daytime temperatures in
the 100s and 110s and heat index values in excess of that,
followed by nighttime temps in the 70s and 80s, will be relentless
on those who are exposed outside for too long. Many places will
continue to tie or break daily high and low temperature records.
Dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s will add a humidity
factor to the heat that will make outdoor conditions feel
oppressive. Dry, hot and windy conditions will favor a critical
risk of fire weather across much of New Mexico on Friday.


Kebede
	

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php